基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

Seasonal variations in prey selection by estuarine black-headed gulls (Larus ridibundus)

The number of black-headed gulls (Larus ridibundus) in the Clyde Estuary is large. In summer the average density has reached 1350 gulls km^?2 and in winter 180 gulls km^?2. This paper compares prey selection and feeding efficiency in gulls during summer and winter on tidal flats, and considers how seasonal differences may be adaptations to cope with seasonal changes in prey availability.Gross and net rates of energy intake were highest in summer because gulls captured more of the polychaete N. diversicolor than the amphipod C. volutator. In winter, gulls selected for C. volutator and therefore an energetically less profitable diet. Throughout the year gulls selected more C. volutator relative to N. diversicolor than expected on energetic grounds and so apparently did not maximize potential net rate of energy intake.Gulls used three techniques to capture prey and made most intensive use of the ‘crouch’ technique. Crouching gulls attained a much higher net rate of energy intake than ‘upright’ or ‘paddling’ gulls.A log-linear model showed that (a) season, water depth and gull density determined feeding technique and (b) feeding technique and season independently determined foraging success and prey selection. Thus gull density and water depth acted on prey selection through imposed variations in feeding technique.Reasons for gulls selecting energetically unprofitable C. volutator and for the use of several distinct feeding techniques are discussed.     

Particulate organic matter in the coastal and estuarine waters of Goa and its relationship with phytoplankton production

In the coastal and estuarine waters of Goa, particulate organic carbon (POC) varied from 0.52 to 2.51 mg l^?1 and from 0.28 to 5.24 mg l^?1 and particulate phosphorus (PP) varied from 0.71 to 5.18 μg l^?1 and from 0.78 to 20.34 μg l^?1, respectively. The mean values of chlorophyll and primary productivity were 1.94 mg m^?3 and 938.1 mg C m^?2 day^?1 in the coastal waters and 4.3 mg m^?3 and 636.5 mg C m^?1 day^?1 in the estuarine waters, respectively.$\text{POC}\text{chl}$ ratios were low in June and October even when POC values were quite high. The POC in surface waters was linearly correlated with the chlorophyll content. Also PP increased when chlorophyll and primary productivity remained high. The results suggest that the phytoplankton was sharply increasing and contributed to POC and PP content. The percentage of detritus calculated from the intercept values of chlorophyll on POC varied from 46 to 76% depending on season. Results indicate that the major portion of POC and PP during postmonsoon (October–January) is derived from phytoplankton production while the allochthonous matter predominate during monsoon (June–September).     

基于遥感技术对黄河口水色与岸线季相变化特征研究

使用Landsat-5 TM 2004年11月24日与2005年5月13日黄河口遥感影像,配合准同期外业实测资料,进行黄河口水体水色物质叶绿素a与悬浮泥沙的动态反演与河口岸线解译.研究表明由于秋末与春初黄河上游来水物质含量的差异,上述悬浮指标值存在显著的季相差异.根据样值与光谱特征建立的反演模型得出的反演值与实测值有平均在0.85以上的相关关系,具有很好的反演效果.岸线解译成果表明,黄河口岸线演变迅速,在河流平枯水量时期仍然具有较强的变化,岸线推进尤以新河口附近显著.这表明,使用遥感手段是进行河口生态环境质量监测的有效手段,是进行岸线动态变化研究的一种基本技术支撑手段.     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

Prediction of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters using Instance-Based Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithms

In this article we present a method for the automated prediction of stellar atmospheric parameters from spectral indices. This method uses a genetic algorithm (GA) for the selection of relevant spectral indices and prototypical stars and predicts their properties, using the k-nearest neighbors method (KNN). We have applied the method to predict the effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity, luminosity class and spectral class of stars from spectral indices. Our experimental results show that the feature selection performed by the genetic algorithm reduces the running time of KNN up to 92%, and the predictive accuracy error up to 35%. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.